Jobless Claims: Jobless claims came in slightly worse than expected today. Continuing claims, as shown below, have remained relatively flat and in a tight range for most of the year. Today’s numbers, although slightly worse than expected, had little effect on the market.
Continuing Jobless Claims (Four Years)
ISM Manufacturing: The ISM Manufacturing survey for November showed a slight tick up. This index has remained above 50, which is the “Mendoza line” for growth, since August 2009. Like the jobless claims data, this did not affect the market much.
ISM Manufacturing (Since 2001)
Most U.S. economic data has been better than expected. Generally, however, the market has been more concerned with what is occurring in Europe.
Construction Spending: Construction spending was slightly better than expected for October. Looking at year-over-year comparisons, construction spending is now back to flat. The chart below illustrates how construction fell off a cliff in 2006 and starting at the beginning of 2010, started to become “less worse.” Whether we will be able to say it is getting “better” remains to be seen.
Construction Spending (YOY Δ% Since 1994)
November: November proved to be another interesting month. Although the final result for the major indices was relatively benign, in the last ten days of the month, there was plenty of volatility. During those ten days, the S&P 500 dropped eight percent and then rallied almost eight percent.
Market Today: The market ended the day relatively flat. The intraday volatility was only about one percent, which is lower than most days we have seen. It appears that after yesterday, the market took a breather. Most sectors I follow were mixed.
Have a good day! Brent
